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Fernanda becomes a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific

Fernanda becomes a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted in its 11 a.m. EDT discussion that the recent infrared and visible satellite images show that Fernanda has begun to establish good outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the that previously affected the tropical is diminishing. It is moving to the west at 12 miles per hour.

It could become a major hurricane, also known as a Category 3 or higher storm, by Friday thanks to warm sea surface temperatures and light shear, National Hurricane Center forecasters in Miami said Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 miles per hour (100 kph) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.

No coastal watches or warnings are now in effect, however forecasters will continue to keep a close eye for any potential impact on Hawaii's islands. Recent SSMI and SSMIS passes from 1016 and 1130 UTC, respectively, show that that convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center, but the low-level center remains displaced a little to the north-northeast. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 65-75 kt, so the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 70 kt. This general motion is expected during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, it's expected to encounter cooler waters and drier air, which should help to steadily weaken Fernanda. Conservative or not, this is a 35 kt increase from this time yesterday. The intensity forecast is near the top of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected consensus aids FSSE and HCCA.

Forecasters are monitoring Hurricane Fernanda in the East Pacific for potential impacts as it tracks west towards Hawaiʻi. Given the lack of negative factors, except for the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, the new intensity forecast could still be conservative even though it lies above the intensity guidance.



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