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USA oil production to grow for decades

USA oil production to grow for decades”

The country will achieve the feat as it expands natural gas exports beyond its traditional North American markets, shipments of crude oil increase and outward flows of refined products like gasoline remain robust, the Energy Information Administration said in its Annual Energy Outlook.

The reference case in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) projects the United States will become a net energy exporter by 2022, with the transition occurring even earlier in some sensitivity cases that incorporate assumptions supporting larger growth in oil and natural gas production or that have higher oil prices.

The United States has been a net energy importer since 1953, but the AEO2018 Reference case projects the United Sates will become a net energy exporter by 2022. This report includes projections for US energy markets from now all the way out through 2050, and it keeps a reference case and a number of sensitivity cases.

In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, favorable geology and technological developments increase oil and natural gas supply, leading to higher energy exports.

The EIA's reference case projects that energy consumption will grow about 0.4% per year on average from 2017 to 2050.

Total U.S. energy production increases by 31% through 2050 in the reference case, led by increases in production of nonhydro renewables, natural gas and crude oil.

Under the EIA's "reference case", energy consumption is forecast to grow by about 0.4% per year on average in 2017 to 2050 - lower than expected population growth of 0.6% per year, and below expected average growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.0% per year through 2050. After 2040, exports decline as a result of the lack of substantial improvements in technology and production moves to less productive regions. Production from the Eagle Ford and Haynesville plays is a secondary source to domestic dry natural gas, though production from those plays is projected to level off after 2028.

USA oil production to grow for decades

The reference case only considers existing laws and policies and is not a projection of the future - but six sensitivity cases make predictive assumptions about the market, policies, technology, and uncertainties.

The report also expects that a growing push for increased energy efficiency in the US will put a dent in energy demand. "The continued development of tight oil and shale gas resources supports growth in natural gas plant liquids production, which reaches 5.0 million b/d in 2023 in the reference case - a almost 35% increase from the 2017 level", EIA said.

United States production of liquids and natural gas is set to continue growing for decades, the agency said.

AEO2018 is a full edition of the AEO, and it incorporates updates on changes in legislation and regulations, and includes a large set of sensitivity and scenario cases with browser tables and spreadsheets for all cases. Sign up for an email notification of the release of the upcoming Issues in Focus articles at: https://www.eia.gov/tools/emailupdates/#forecast.

In fact, just previous year, the EIA forecast the United States would not achieve net exporter status until 2026.

Last year, USA crude started trading at a big discount to worldwide benchmark Brent crude after Hurricane Harvey shut down a quarter of American refining capacity, shrinking demand for crude oil.



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