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IMD forecasts a normal monsoon in 2018

IMD forecasts a normal monsoon in 2018”

The country is likely to see normal monsoon rains, though there's a threat from an anomalous warming in the Indian Ocean, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. Unlike the IMD, Skymet had predicted a 100 per cent normal Monsoon, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent. This is the third consecutive year when the IMD predicted normal monsoon rains for the country.

The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress. The average rainfall in "above normal" monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA while anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as "excess".

About half of India's farm output comes from summer-sown kharif crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, which are dependent on South-west monsoon.

However, the arrival of the monsoon and its distribution would play an important part so far as the economy was concerned, experts said.

The IMD bases it's optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon is unlikely.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

The IMD, meanwhile, said it would be able to forecast a clearer picture of the Monsoon, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, only in June.

In 2017, the average seasonal rainfall over northwest India was 95 per cent, in central India 106 per cent, in southern peninsula 92 per cent and in northeast India 89 per cent.

The IMD, which released its initial forecast for the four-month monsoon season, also said preliminary indications showed this year's rains would evenly distributed.



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