Science

NOAA Winter Outlook: Warmer for Much of the United States

NOAA Winter Outlook: Warmer for Much of the United States”

Above-average temperatures are likely across most northern and western states from December through February, according to the 2018-2019 Winter Outlook released by the agency's Climate Prediction Center on Thursday.

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says their forecast calls for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for both the Lower and Upper Peninsula.

According to NOAA, in ME, the three-month average snowfall in Portland, across December, January and February, is 14.8 inches, in Bangor 16.1 inches, and in Caribou, 23.4 inches. This change in sea surface temperature has a wide range of effects on seasonal weather patterns across the globe, but in the USA, an El Niño typically means warmer winter temperatures, and higher levels of precipitation in certain regions of the country.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said.

What will determine just how wet the Carolinas' winter could be is El Niño, "an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific".

No part of the United States is expected to have below-average temperatures, according to the outlook. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the US can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Map showing the NOAA winter outlook for the months of December, January and February for the U.S.

-Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. They will provide you with estimated snowfall totals for the winter in Eastern Kentucky.

Farmer's Almanac Editor Peter Geiger said in late August his publication predicts "a very long, cold and snow-filled winter". NOAA'S next update will be available on November 15th. He also forecasted a warm winter, heavily based on weak snowfall in Siberia.



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