Grain, Soybean Futures Mixed Ahead of Harvest Report

Grain, Soybean Futures Mixed Ahead of Harvest Report”

Traders shrugged at news of fresh U.S. export business. The government reported export inspections of United States soybeans in the latest week at 1,106,268 tonnes, topping a range of trade expectations. The WSJ dollar index rose 0.6% to 84.98.

US weekly exports for the week ending September 7 were 26.1 million bushels of corn, 40.6 million bushels of soybeans and 16.4 million bushels of wheat.

Traders, however, were mostly focused on positioning for USDA's monthly supply-and-demand report on Tuesday at midday EDT, which will include estimates for this season's USA harvest. Corn prices have been facing pressure in recent weeks from expectations of a bumper USA harvest, with the US government set to update its crop production forecast in a monthly report on Tuesday.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the agency to forecast corn production at 14 billion bushels, down from its August forecast of 14.15 billion, along with soybean production of 4.32 billion bushels, revised lower from 4.38 billion a month earlier. They also expected the USDA to lower its U.S. 2017 yield estimates for corn and soybeans.

U.S. Soybean Production chart
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2017 U.S. soybean production at 4,431 million bus

The agency shocked many market participants with larger-than-expected crop forecasts in August, and traders are now looking to see whether the agency revises lower its estimates in order to account for less-than-ideal growing conditions this season.

"Wheat has been under modest pressure today on ideas that USDA will likely increase Black Sea production in tomorrow's report, although its capacity to export what it produces is limited, so the global market shouldn't be immediately impacted", Arlan Suderman, INTL FCStone chief commodities economist, wrote in a note to clients.

Wheat climbed 0.4 percent to $4.39-1/2 a bushel, after closing up 0.1 percent on Friday, while soybeans were up 0.4 percent at $9.66 a bushel, having ended Friday down 0.7 percent. The Chicago Board of Trade most-active corn contract had risen 0.2 percent to $3.57-1/2 a bushel by 0315 GMT, having gained 0.4 percent in the previous session.

CBOT soybeans declined on positioning ahead of the monthly reports, despite support from fresh U.S. soy export sales and forecasts for mostly dry weather this week as the Midwest crop matures.

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