Health Care

Canada could see 60K daily COVID-19 cases by year-end, modelling predicts

Canada could see 60K daily COVID-19 cases by year-end, modelling predicts”

"The curve shows that case counts have now far surpassed peak levels seen in the first wave".

In the coming week and a half, short-term growth of case numbers and deaths is expected, hitting 378,600 patients and 12,120 total fatalities among our population of more than 37.5 million people by December 1.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that if the population falls into COVID fatigue and increases their personal interactions and number of contacts - such as by going to family dinners and other gatherings over the holidays - patient numbers will skyrocket to the aforementioned 60,000 per day across Canada by late December.

Based on the modelling presentation prepared by the Public Health Agency of Canada, more high-risk adults and seniors are contracting the virus at higher rates; the number and size of outbreaks are increasing, including in long-term care homes and Indigenous communities; and hospitalizations and deaths are increasing.

Tam stressed the "urgency to quickly bring infection rates down across the country".

More news: Deadly COVID-19 Case Numbers Soar In LA: Officials Sound 'Alarm'

The average daily case count in near 4,800 and modelling shows there is rapid growth in the six provinces outside the Atlantic bubble.

Trudeau and opposition leaders met with Tam and her deputy Dr. Howard Njoo late Thursday to discuss the new modelling. The majority of new cases and deaths are being reported by Ontario and Quebec. That safer path requires that Canadians significantly reduce the number of people they come into contact with each day.

The data says the percentage of people testing positive has increased to about 6.5 per cent, above the World Health Organization's benchmark of five per cent.

Njoo said it's like trying to strike a kind of "social and moral contract" with people to limit their contacts in order to celebrate together, but both he and Tam stressed the need for people to strictly limit contacts, movements and travel.

Canada is seeing a massive spike in COVID-19 cases which could overwhelm the hospital system, an emotional Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, imploring Canadians to stay home as much as possible.

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