Economy

International Monetary Fund maintains S. Korea’s 2021 economic growth outlook at 3

International Monetary Fund maintains S. Korea’s 2021 economic growth outlook at 3”

The IMF indicated that the robust growth is attributed to additional fiscal support in a few large economies, as well as the distribution of vaccines which will fuel recovery in the second half of the year.

The IMF's projection for India in the current financial year is the upper end of a range that the World Bank's forecast recently.

"Global prospects remain highly uncertain one year into the pandemic".

"Higher debt service costs are also expected to constrain their ability to address social needs, including rising poverty and growing inequality, or to correct the setback in human capital accumulation during the crisis", it said.

The pandemic is expected to "leave smaller scars" than the 2008 financial crisis, due to the unprecedented policy response. Even for the next fiscal, it has revised the projection upwards.

The IMF added that it expects US GDP to grow by 6.4% in 2021 compared to its previous estimates.

Petya Kovea-Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's research department, said the extra round of emergency spending and tax cuts announced last month by Mr Sunak accounted for just under half the increase in Britain's 2021 growth forecast.

Among emerging markets and developing economies, China was projected to grow this year at 8.4 per cent, she said.

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The US economy this year will join China in regaining a level of gross domestic product that exceeds where it stood before the pandemic struck just over a year ago, the International Monetary Fund said.

"For the Emerging and Developing Asia regional group, projections for 2021 have been revised up by 0.6 percentage point, reflecting a stronger recovery than initially expected after lockdowns were eased in some large countries (for example, India)", the WEO said. In 2020, the inflation rate was 0.3% as forecast in October, while in 2022 consumer prices are expected to pick up to 1.2%.

Global output, as a result, is set to increase by 6 percent this year before moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022, the International Monetary Fund outlook said.

The new global forecasts are growth of 6% and 4.4% this year and next. "The pandemic is yet to be defeated and virus cases are accelerating in many countries", Gopinath said.

But it has moved more quickly than nearly all other countries with its coronavirus vaccination programme. "Over the past few months, markets have priced a shift towards a less supportive stance by central banks, in response to higher commodity prices; higher domestic inflation; the improved economic outlook and higher USA rates -and some central banks have already hiked".

Countries with slower vaccine rollouts, more limited support from economic policy, and those more reliant on tourism are likely to do less well. China, on the other hand which was the only major economy to have a positive growth rate of 2.3 per cent in 2020, is expected to grow by 8.6 per cent in 2021 and 5.6 per cent in 2022.

Uneven recoveries are also occurring within countries as young and lower-skilled workers remain more heavily affected.

The report says the cumulative losses in income per person over the period 2020 to 2022 are likely to be 20% for those countries, compared with a less severe but still large figure of 11% for the developed world.



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